Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olivares singled to center, Reyes scored, Massey to second.10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Massey singled to center, Isbel scored and Pasquantino scored, Reyes to third.9–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Reyes singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Isbel to second, Pasquantino to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Witt Jr. tripled to right, Melendez scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Melendez singled to right, Lopez scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Pasquantino homered to right center (388 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Melendez doubled to center, Lopez scored and Olivares scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Lopez singled to center, Reyes scored, Olivares to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Lowe homered to right center (430 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- KC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +15 | KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +48 Elo | TEX 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 6.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +2.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–3 | Road vs home | 6–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–2 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.