Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored, McCormick to third.7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Diaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Julks scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Bregman homered to left (395 feet), Diaz scored and McCormick scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Julks homered to left center (405 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3J. Abreu doubled to left, McCormick scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +1 Elo | HOU 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.815th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.