Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peña doubled to third, Alvarez scored and J. Abreu scored, Tucker to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7J. Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bregman scored and Dubón scored, Alvarez safe at second on fielding error by shortstop J. Smith.2–6
- 7J. Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bregman scored and Dubón scored, Alvarez safe at second on fielding error by shortstop J. Smith.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Alvarez walked, Meyers scored, Bregman to second, Dubón to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 42–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Alvarez doubled to left, Dubón scored and Diaz scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3García reached on infield single to shortstop, Taveras scored, J. Smith to second, Semien to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Semien singled to left, Jankowski scored, Taveras to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -108
- TEX +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +7 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +5 Elo | HOU 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.913th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.