Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Springer singled to center, Jansen scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Chapman scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Merrifield hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Carpenter homered to right center (397 feet), Greene scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Merrifield reached on infield single to shortstop, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Maton homered to center (408 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +51 Elo | TOR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.1 | Runs allowed | 5.526th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.