Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Renfroe homered to left center (413 feet), Rendon scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Trout homered to left center (427 feet), Thaiss scored and Ward scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 5Rengifo homered to left center (395 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Springer homered to center (394 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Renfroe doubled to left, Ohtani scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Rendon grounded out to second, Trout scored, Ohtani to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Rengifo grounded out to first, Urshela scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Chapman homered to left (393 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Bichette homered to center (414 feet), Springer scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- TOR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +16 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +44 Elo | LAA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.46th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.