Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mariners- AJ PollockBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Trout scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 8Renfroe singled to left, Ward scored, Phillips to second, Trout to third.1–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–11
- 7Pollock homered to left (380 feet), Raleigh scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Raleigh singled to left, France scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 5Pollock homered to left center (388 feet), Suárez scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Hernández homered to left center (426 feet), Rodríguez scored and France scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Pollock grounded out to third, Suárez scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Hernández homered to center (419 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Rodríguez scored on Suarez wild pitch, Suárez to second on wild pitch by Suarez.0–1
- 1Rodríguez scored on Suarez wild pitch, Suárez to second on wild pitch by Suarez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | +20 | LAA: Jose Suarez (no track record yet) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.8 | Runs scored | 3.026th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301.5 | Runs allowed | 4.816th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.3 | Margin | −1.823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 173–1 | Road vs home | 1–414th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.