MLB games
Updated
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Gio UrshelaBatting2-4
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to left, Kemp scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Kemp doubled to center, Ruiz scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Urshela scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 53%
Toss-upHit
LAA 47%OAK 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 53%
- Fair odds
- OAK -111
- LAA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | LAA: Shohei Ohtani (no track record yet) · OAK: Kyle Muller (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +18 Elo | OAK 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
AngelsAthletics
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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