Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jesus AguilarBatting2-4
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (447 feet).6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Trout homered to center (434 feet), Ward scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left center (391 feet), Renfroe scored and Rengifo scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 52%
- Fair odds
- OAK -110
- LAA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | LAA: Tyler Anderson (no track record yet) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +12 Elo | OAK 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 1.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301.5 | Runs allowed | 7.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+5.5 | Margin | −5.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–18th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Angels: last 2
Athletics: last 2
Head to head
LAA 1–1 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.