Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ward singled to left, Rengifo scored, Urshela to third.13–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 212–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 112–1
- 6Ohtani singled to right, Trout scored.12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 5Laureano homered to left (396 feet).11–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 3Ward homered to left center (392 feet), Urshela scored.11–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 3O'Hoppe hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.9–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 3Urshela singled to right, Lamb scored and Renfroe scored, Rengifo to third.8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 3Lamb singled to center, Ohtani scored and Trout scored, Renfroe to second, Renfroe safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz.6–0
- 3Lamb singled to center, Ohtani scored and Trout scored, Renfroe to second, Renfroe safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Ruiz.6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Rendon hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Ohtani singled to left, O'Hoppe scored, Trout to second, Ward to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Ward singled to center, Urshela scored, O'Hoppe to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3O'Hoppe doubled to left, Rengifo scored, Urshela to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 53%
- Fair odds
- OAK -112
- LAA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.5 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | LAA: Patrick Sandoval (no track record yet) · OAK: Shintaro Fujinami (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +20 Elo | OAK 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 301.0 | Runs scored | 2.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 1.03rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 13th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Angels: last 1
Athletics: last 1
Head to head
LAA 0–1 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.