Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 5 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor singled to center, Ramírez scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Rosario singled to left, Straw scored, Kwan to third.8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Kwan singled to left, Giménez scored and Zunino scored, Straw to second.7–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Rodríguez doubled to left, Hummel scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Kwan doubled to left, Giménez scored and Straw scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Raleigh doubled to center, France scored and Wong scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2Kwan hit sacrifice fly to right, Zunino scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Straw flied out to right, Gonzalez scored on throwing error by right fielder Hernández and Giménez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ray, Zunino safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Straw flied out to right, Gonzalez scored on throwing error by right fielder Hernández and Giménez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ray, Zunino safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Straw flied out to right, Gonzalez scored on throwing error by right fielder Hernández and Giménez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ray, Zunino safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Straw flied out to right, Gonzalez scored on throwing error by right fielder Hernández and Giménez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ray, Zunino safe at third on error.2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CLE: Hunter Gaddis (no track record yet) · SEA: Robbie Ray (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 300.0 | Runs scored | 3.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 0.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +3.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Guardians: last 1
Mariners: last 1
Head to head
CLE 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.