MLB games
Updated
Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-4
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8France homered to right (339 feet), Crawford scored and Wong scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Toss-upHit
CLE 47%SEA 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CLE: Shane Bieber (no track record yet) · SEA: Luis Castillo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
GuardiansMariners
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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