Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Drury doubled to center, Renfroe scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Ward homered to center (417 feet), Rengifo scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Suárez singled to center, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Ohtani homered to center (431 feet), Trout scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Rengifo singled to right, Lamb scored, Drury to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3France doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Rengifo singled to left, Lamb scored, Drury to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Suárez doubled to left, Rodríguez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | LAA: Reid Detmers (no track record yet) · SEA: George Kirby (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.7 | Runs scored | 3.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.7 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 172–1 | Road vs home | 1–313th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.