Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Mike ZuninoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ramírez scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Bell safe at third on error, Kwan out at home.6–5
- 10Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ramírez scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Bell safe at third on error, Kwan out at home.6–5
- 10Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Ramírez scored on throwing error by catcher Raleigh, Bell safe at third on error, Kwan out at home.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 7Kwan singled to right, Brennan scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Bell.4–5
- 5Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Bell.4–5
- 5Suárez scored on error, Raleigh safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Bell.4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Kwan grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Zunino scored, Straw out at second.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Raleigh doubled to center, France scored and Suárez scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Suárez reached on infield single to second, Wong scored, France to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Zunino homered to left center (378 feet), Bell scored and Giménez scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to right (350 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CLE: Cal Quantrill (no track record yet) · SEA: Marco Gonzales (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +13 Elo | SEA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 2.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 3.711th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–29th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Guardians: last 3
Mariners: last 3
Head to head
CLE 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.