Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Giménez homered to right center (407 feet).2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Naylor homered to center (430 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CLE: Aaron Civale (no track record yet) · SEA: Logan Gilbert (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–15th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Guardians: last 2
Mariners: last 2
Head to head
CLE 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.