Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suárez singled to left, France scored, Suárez thrown out at second.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7France doubled to left, Haggerty scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Ohtani singled to left, Ward scored, Trout to second.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Trout reached on infield single to shortstop, Urshela scored, Ward to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left (406 feet), Urshela scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Suárez singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second, France out at home on runner's fielder's choice.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Chris Flexen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +6 Elo | LAA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.4 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 7th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 2–411th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.