Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette homered to left center (415 feet), Espinal scored and Springer scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Fletcher reached on bunt single to pitcher, Urshela scored, O'Hoppe to second.1–3
- 4Fletcher sacrificed to pitcher, Urshela scored, Fletcher to first on fielding error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., O'Hoppe to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Espinal grounded into fielder's choice to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk out at second, Chapman to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Trout homered to left center (441 feet), Ward scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +46 Elo | LAA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.