Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duvall homered to center, Devers scored and Yoshida scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 26–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Devers doubled to right, Verdugo scored, Devers to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Devers homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Cabrera singled to center, Torkelson scored, Haase to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arroyo scored, McGuire out at second.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Rogers homered to left center (414 feet), Schoop scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 6.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −3.328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.