Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Trout walked, Drury scored, Ward to second, Urshela to third.12–11
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 412–11
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–11
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 312–11
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 212–11
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 112–11
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–11
- 10Springer singled to right, Kiermaier scored.12–10
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–10
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 111–10
- 10Kiermaier hit a ground rule double, Biggio scored.11–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–10
- 9Renfroe doubled to left, Ward scored and Ohtani scored, Phillips to third.10–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–8
- 9Rendon hit by pitch, Urshela scored, Ohtani to second, Ward to third.10–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–8
- 8Drury homered to center (402 feet).10–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 7Kiermaier singled to left, Chapman scored and Merrifield scored, Kirk to second.10–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Merrifield singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to second.8–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 7Chapman singled to center, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +5 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +2.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.