Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett HillPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baddoo scored on error, Báez safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Greene safe at third on error.14–5
- 9Baddoo scored on error, Báez safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Greene safe at third on error.14–5
- 9Baddoo scored on error, Báez safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Greene safe at third on error.14–5
- 9Baddoo scored on error, Báez safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Greene safe at third on error.14–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–4
- 9Greene singled to right, McKinstry scored and Rogers scored, Baddoo to third.14–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 114–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–2
- 9Tapia homered to right (425 feet), Duvall scored.14–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–2
- 8Refsnyder singled to center, Arroyo scored, Wong to third.12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Wong singled to right, Verdugo scored, Arroyo to second.11–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Verdugo singled to right, Duvall scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Devers homered to right (395 feet).9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 4Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, Carpenter scored, Maton to third.8–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 4Maton doubled to right, Greene scored, Carpenter to third.8–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 38–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- BOS +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 6.328th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −3.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.