Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk homered to left (398 feet), Chapman scored and Luplow scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Belt singled to right, Varsho scored, Chapman to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Bichette homered to right center (369 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Springer homered to left center (403 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Kiermaier homered to right center (390 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Chapman homered to center (423 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Kirk singled to center, Varsho scored, Belt to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Maton homered to right (380 feet), Báez scored and Torkelson scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -116
- DET +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 5.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +35 Elo | TOR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.47th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 5.827th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.