Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Casas homered to right center (401 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Refsnyder scored, Devers to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Refsnyder singled to left, Wong scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Casas doubled to right, Hernández scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Torkelson singled to left, Báez scored, Carpenter to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.9 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.9 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 7.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −4.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.