Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena grounded out to first, Franco scored, Arozarena out at first.2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Kirk singled to right, Varsho scored, Chapman to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Springer walked, Chapman scored, Jansen to second, Kirk to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 41–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Jansen singled to center, Merrifield scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Merrifield doubled to left, Kirk scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Walls homered to left (357 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Bichette grounded out to second, Kiermaier scored, Bichette out at first, Springer to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | TB: Calvin Faucher (no track record yet) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.4 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.