Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Reese McGuireBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McGuire singled to right, Verdugo scored, Tapia to second.2–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to first, Díaz scored on fielding error by first baseman Casas, B. Lowe safe at third on error.1–7
- 7Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to first, Díaz scored on fielding error by first baseman Casas, B. Lowe safe at third on error.1–7
- 7Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to first, Díaz scored on fielding error by first baseman Casas, B. Lowe safe at third on error.1–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7J. Lowe homered to right center (406 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Yoshida grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Devers scored, Turner out at second.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5B. Lowe homered to right center (417 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Díaz homered to left center (395 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Paredes homered to left (381 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Bruján singled to center, J. Lowe scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +22 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock (no track record yet) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +60 Elo | TB 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.9 | Runs scored | 7.61st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 1.81st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +5.81st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.