Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kemp reached on infield single to second, Langeliers scored, Ruiz to second.5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Franco homered to right center (411 feet).4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7Langeliers homered to left (440 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 5Díaz hit a ground rule double, Ruiz scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 3Bethancourt homered to center (419 feet).2–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 3Margot homered to left center (427 feet).2–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 3Noda homered to right center (401 feet).2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 2Paredes homered to left (355 feet), Siri scored, Bethancourt scored and Walls scored.1–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Walls walked, Margot scored, Bethancourt to second, Siri to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- OAK +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.4 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +12 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +53 Elo | TB 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| OAK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 7.31st of 30 |
| 29th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 2.23rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +5.21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.