Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Tony KempBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kemp singled to right, Noda scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Brown struck out swinging, Kemp scored on Bieber wild pitch.3–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Ramírez doubled to second, Straw scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Arias homered to center (423 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Naylor grounded out to second, Gonzalez scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Peterson hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Ruiz doubled to left, Noda scored, Pérez to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 49%
- Fair odds
- OAK -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | — | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 8.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −4.530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 174–1 | Road vs home | 1–313th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.