Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Jace PetersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ruiz doubled to right, Laureano scored.12–11
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–11
- 10Rosario scored, Arias to second, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by May.12–10
- 10Rosario scored on May wild pitch, Arias to second on wild pitch by May, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by May.12–10
- 10Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Rosario to third.11–10
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–10
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–10
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 210–10
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 110–10
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–10
- 9Brown homered to center (432 feet), Díaz scored.10–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–8
- 8Bell hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored.10–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–8
- 8Ramírez tripled to right, Kwan scored.9–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 8Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Straw scored.8–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 6Rosario singled to center, Brennan scored.7–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 6Kwan hit sacrifice fly to left, Zunino scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 5Laureano homered to left center (408 feet), Capel scored.5–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Fair odds
- OAK -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CLE: Zach Plesac (no track record yet) · OAK: James Kaprielian (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +8 Elo | OAK 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 1.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 6.725th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −5.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 173–1 | Road vs home | 1–211th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.