Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Victor RoblesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena singled to right, Díaz scored, Franco to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Siri singled to right, Walls scored, Siri safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Thomas, Siri out at third on runner's fielder's choice.6–2
- 6Siri singled to right, Walls scored, Siri safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Thomas, Siri out at third on runner's fielder's choice.6–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Walls doubled to center, Margot scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Ramírez homered to center (413 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Chavis singled to left, Meneses scored, Ruiz to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Franco homered to left (396 feet), Díaz scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Robles doubled to left, Garrett scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Siri hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored, Walls to second, Ramírez to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | — | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.4 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.2 | Runs allowed | 6.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.2 | Margin | −3.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 172–0 | Road vs home | 1–415th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.