Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Candelario homered to center (393 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 9Margot hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored, J. Lowe to second.6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Raley homered to left (363 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Thomas grounded out to third, Candelario scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Paredes homered to left (404 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Mejía hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Lowe scored, Margot to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Raley homered to center (429 feet), Arozarena scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TB: Drew Rasmussen (no track record yet) · WSH: Trevor Williams (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 307.0 | Runs scored | 2.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.0 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+6.0 | Margin | −2.725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.