Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to left center (414 feet), Walls scored and Siri scored.10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9J. Lowe homered to right center (429 feet).7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Raley homered to left (372 feet).6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Arozarena doubled to center, Díaz scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7García doubled to right, Call scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 4Thomas singled to center, Robles scored, Abrams to second.4–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 2Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored and Robles scored.4–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Siri homered to center (395 feet).4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 1Call singled to left, Meneses scored and Candelario scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Raley hit sacrifice fly to left, Arozarena scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TB: Josh Fleming (no track record yet) · WSH: Chad Kuhl (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.8 | Runs scored | 2.329th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301.3 | Runs allowed | 5.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.5 | Margin | −3.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 171–0 | Road vs home | 1–313th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.