Cleveland Guardians at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jesus AguilarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kwan singled to left, Straw scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Brennan grounded out to shortstop, Giménez scored, Straw to third.5–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Aguilar homered to left center (381 feet), Kemp scored and Díaz scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 12 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Noda homered to right center (385 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Giménez singled to right, Gonzalez scored and Ramírez scored, Arias thrown out at third.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Gallagher doubled to left, Straw scored and Giménez scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 53%
- Fair odds
- OAK -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +17 | CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +18 Elo | OAK 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 7.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −3.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 174–2 | Road vs home | 2–311th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.