Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-4
- Shintaro FujinamiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena homered to center (414 feet), B. Lowe scored.0–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 6B. Lowe homered to center (431 feet), Mejía scored and Díaz scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Margot homered to left center (406 feet).0–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Paredes hit by pitch, B. Lowe scored, Ramírez to second, Arozarena to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Arozarena singled to center, Margot scored and Mejía scored, B. Lowe to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Paredes singled to left, B. Lowe scored and Franco scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- OAK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +13 | OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +78 Elo | TB 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 7.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 307.1 | Runs allowed | 2.63rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.3 | Margin | +5.01st of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.