Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3
- James KaprielianPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Lowe singled to center, Ramírez scored.0–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–10
- 7B. Lowe singled to right, Bethancourt scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 6J. Lowe walked, Arozarena scored, Ramírez to second, Raley to third.0–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 40–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Arozarena singled to left, B. Lowe scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Ramírez homered to center (441 feet), Paredes scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4B. Lowe homered to left (386 feet), Paredes scored, Ramírez scored and Bethancourt scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Franco homered to right (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- OAK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +8 | OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +75 Elo | TB 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 8.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 307.6 | Runs allowed | 2.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +5.81st of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.