Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe homered to right center (404 feet).0–1
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -115
- BOS +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Jalen Beeks (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 8.31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 2.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +6.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.