Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christian BethancourtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting5-5, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bethancourt homered to left center (402 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7J. Lowe homered to center (409 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored on error and Varsho scored, Espinal safe at second on error by second baseman B. Lowe, Espinal safe at third on error.1–6
- 5Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored on error and Varsho scored, Espinal safe at second on error by second baseman B. Lowe, Espinal safe at third on error.1–6
- 5Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored on error and Varsho scored, Espinal safe at second on error by second baseman B. Lowe, Espinal safe at third on error.1–6
- 5Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored on error and Varsho scored, Espinal safe at second on error by second baseman B. Lowe, Espinal safe at third on error.1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Espinal walked, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second, Varsho to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 41–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Kirk walked, Bichette scored, Varsho to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 41–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Raley singled to center, B. Lowe scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Bichette hit a ground rule double, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Springer homered to left center (440 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −16 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.8 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 5.222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.5 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.