Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to right, Franco scored.7–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Devers homered to left (366 feet), McGuire scored and Hernández scored.7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 6Tapia grounded out to third, Turner scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Bruján singled to center, Bethancourt scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Bethancourt doubled to center, Walls scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Verdugo singled to center, Hernández scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Hernández doubled to right, McGuire scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Franco doubled to center, Bethancourt scored and Bruján scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Walls scored, Bruján to second, Bethancourt to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Turner singled to left, Verdugo scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Arozarena homered to right (355 feet), Franco scored and Paredes scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +30 Elo | TB 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 7.51st of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 1.81st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +5.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.