Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rogers doubled to left, Torkelson scored, Baddoo to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5McKinstry doubled to center, Baddoo scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Biggio scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Nevin hit sacrifice fly to center, Rogers scored, Maton to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +53 Elo | TOR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.