Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7B. Lowe homered to right center (399 feet).3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Ramírez doubled to left, Arozarena scored, Margot scored and Franco scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Margot reached on bunt single to pitcher, B. Lowe scored, Franco to second, Arozarena to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Arozarena singled to right, Mejía scored, B. Lowe to second.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5B. Lowe singled to center, J. Lowe scored, Mejía to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Mejía singled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Lowe to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Turner singled to center, Arroyo scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Dalbec out at second, Casas to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Díaz homered to center (434 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Refsnyder homered to left (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- BOS +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +22 | BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 7.71st of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 2.31st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +5.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–3 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.