Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christian BethancourtBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4
- Alek ManoahPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bruján singled to left, Walls scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Bethancourt homered to center (414 feet), J. Lowe scored and Bruján scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5J. Lowe doubled to center, Walls scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Springer scored, Bichette to second.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1J. Lowe singled to center, B. Lowe scored and Ramírez scored, Franco to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Franco walked, Díaz scored, Ramírez to second, B. Lowe to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- TB +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +15 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.1 | Runs scored | 5.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.3 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.