Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sam HilliardBatting2-3
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Soto homered to right center (431 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +6 Elo | ATL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–1 | Road vs home | 4–823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.