San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Nelson CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olson singled to left, Arcia scored, Acuña Jr. to second.10–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 310–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 210–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 110–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Cruz singled to center, Bogaerts scored and Machado scored, Soto to second.10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arcia scored, Hilliard out at third.8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 5Kim homered to left (358 feet), Cruz scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5Cruz hit a ground rule double, Soto scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Grisham homered to center (424 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Cruz homered to left center (432 feet), Bogaerts scored and Machado scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Kim doubled to center, Cronenworth scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- SD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +13 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Dylan Dodd: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.914th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.74th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–217th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.