San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Odor scored on Yates wild pitch, Grisham to second on wild pitch by Yates.4–1
- 9Odor scored on Yates wild pitch, Grisham to second on wild pitch by Yates.4–1
- 8Olson singled to center, Hilliard scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Grisham grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Kim scored on error by catcher d'Arnaud, Grisham to second, Odor out at home.3–0
- 4Grisham grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Kim scored on error by catcher d'Arnaud, Grisham to second, Odor out at home.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Odor grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Soto homered to right center (428 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +28 Elo | ATL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.47th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.16th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +2.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.