San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Nelson CruzBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bogaerts singled to right, Grisham scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Murphy walked, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 44–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Machado scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 3Olson scored on Martinez wild pitch, Riley to second on wild pitch by Martinez.3–3
- 3Olson scored on Martinez wild pitch, Riley to second on wild pitch by Martinez.3–3
- 3Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Ozuna homered to center (440 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Cruz reached on infield single to second, Azocar scored, Machado to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Nola walked, Machado scored, Kim to second, Cruz to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 42–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Cruz doubled to right, Soto scored, Machado to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +30 Elo | ATL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 2.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +2.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.