San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Matt CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia singled to center, Rosario scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8d'Arnaud singled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Olson singled to left, Arcia scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Azocar reached on bunt single to pitcher, Cronenworth scored on error, Azocar safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Yates.6–4
- 8Azocar reached on bunt single to pitcher, Cronenworth scored on error, Azocar safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Yates.6–4
- 8Azocar reached on bunt single to pitcher, Cronenworth scored on error, Azocar safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Yates.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Bogaerts scored on Yates wild pitch, Cronenworth to third on wild pitch by Yates.5–4
- 8Bogaerts scored on Yates wild pitch, Cronenworth to third on wild pitch by Yates.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Cronenworth homered to right center (412 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Olson walked, Pillar scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Arcia to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 43–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pillar singled to left, Murphy scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +16 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.34th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +3.04th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.