Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left center (438 feet), Hilliard scored.10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Isbel hit by pitch, Melendez scored, Perez to second, Witt Jr. to third.8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Murphy homered to center (436 feet).8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Massey hit sacrifice fly to left, Olivares scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 2Murphy doubled to left, Olson scored and Acuña Jr. scored.7–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Hilliard homered to right (448 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Melendez scored, Pasquantino safe at second on error by pitcher Morton, Witt Jr. out at second.4–1
- 1Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Melendez scored, Pasquantino safe at second on error by pitcher Morton, Witt Jr. out at second.4–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Grissom doubled to right, Rosario scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Riley homered to left (385 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Fair odds
- KC -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +5 Elo | ATL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.512th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.