Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jose BarreroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CessaPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle WrightPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barrero homered to left center (455 feet), Steer scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Arcia grounded into fielder's choice to third, Murphy scored, Albies to second, Rosario out at third.4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Arcia reached on infield single to shortstop, Riley scored, Rosario to third.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Hilliard doubled to center, Ozuna scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Albies homered to right (393 feet), Murphy scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Acuña Jr. singled to center, Hilliard scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Barrero walked, Stephenson scored, Casali to second, Steer to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 44–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Steer reached on infield single to second, Fraley scored and Friedl scored, Stephenson to second, Stephenson safe at third on fielding error by catcher Murphy.3–1
- 3Steer reached on infield single to second, Fraley scored and Friedl scored, Stephenson to second, Stephenson safe at third on fielding error by catcher Murphy.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Stephenson hit by pitch, India scored, Fraley to second, Friedl to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Olson homered to center (448 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −5 | CIN: Luis Cessa: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Kyle Wright (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.