Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Murphy homered to center (408 feet), Riley scored.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10India singled to right, Barrero scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Steer singled to right, Fairchild scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 9Fairchild tripled to left, Myers scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Arcia singled to left, Albies scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Fraley singled to right, India scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Arcia scored on Sanmartin wild pitch, Olson to second, Acuña Jr. to third.0–2
- 7Arcia scored on Sanmartin wild pitch, Olson to second on wild pitch by Sanmartin, Acuña Jr. to third on wild pitch by Sanmartin.0–2
- 6Murphy doubled to left, Riley scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- CIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +8 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +18 Elo | ATL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.711th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.