Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to center (398 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to right, Hilliard scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Friedl singled to center, Maile scored, Fairchild to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Murphy doubled to left, Riley scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Myers grounded out to second, India scored, Fraley to second, Friedl to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to center, Albies scored and Rosario scored, Arcia to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Stephenson singled to right, India scored and Friedl scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.