Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Murphy to third.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Murphy walked, White scored, Olson to second, Acuña Jr. to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 47–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Olson walked, Pillar scored, Acuña Jr. to second, White to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 46–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Bradley Jr. doubled to right, Dozier scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Isbel doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Melendez to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Murphy homered to left center (394 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Albies singled to center, Riley scored and Murphy scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Murphy doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.918th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 1–729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.