Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Odor singled to center, Azocar scored, Bogaerts to second.11–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 311–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 8Anderson grounded out to third, Adames scored, Anderson out at first.11–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 6Tellez homered to right center (419 feet), Adames scored and Contreras scored.10–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Campusano homered to left (383 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Voit singled to center, Anderson scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Tellez homered to right (398 feet).6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Yelich homered to right (345 feet).5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Brosseau doubled to left, Voit scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- MIL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +16 | MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.