San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pham singled to center, Alonso scored, McNeil to second.4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 9Bogaerts homered to left (415 feet), Campusano scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Machado doubled to left, Campusano scored and Dixon scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -111
- SD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 286–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 28 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.